基于随机维纳过程的航空发动机性能衰退研究

针对发动机下发间隔预测的问题，研究了发动机性能衰退规律。基于发动机排气温度裕度（EGTM）数据，建立了随机维纳模型，并使用严酷度因子修正模型，表征不同的工作条件对发动机的影响。利用期望最大化（EM）算法结合贝叶斯定理，对模型参数求解，最终得到了基于性能衰退的发动机平均下发间隔。研究结果表明，在严酷度因子为1.2696的使用条件下，某型号航空发动机性能衰退平均下发间隔为8219循环；基于该模型预测的发动机平均下发间隔与厂商建议的下发时间之间的误差仅为1.7%。     

相关系数平稳过程时频分析方法

相关系数平稳过程是从非平稳过程中分离出的一类工程上常见且便于研究的随机过程,其均值和方差都可随时间变化,传统的平稳随机过程是它的一个特例。本文提出了相关系数AR(p),MA(q)和ARMA(p,q)序列的概念,建立了相关系数平稳过程的时频分析方法。该方法首先在时域进行全程分析,得到相关系数平稳过程的均值函数、方差函数和相关系数函数,然后可以对其进行傅里叶变换、短时傅里叶变换或小波变换,给出相关系数平稳过程的谱密度,同时提出了随机项谱密度和趋势项谱密度的概念。文中还讨论了线性系统对相关系数平稳过程输入的响应。     

ARMAX模型参数估计的新两步法

 本文提出了一种ARMAX模型参数估计的新两步法。这种方法与其它递推估计方法（如增广矩阵法,极大似然法,Durbin两步法、三步法等）比较,具有较好的收敛特性,对参数的估计,特别是对C参数的估计比较精确,这是利用其它方法,一直未能很好解决的一个难题。     

LRE模型燃烧室燃烧过程数值模拟

建立了任意斜交曲线坐标系下液体火箭发动机（ＬＲＥ）内部工作过程的气液两相湍流化学反应流模型。应用该模型对气氢液氧模型燃烧室内部燃烧过程进行了数值模拟，得到了全流场的速度分布图形、燃气组分等值线、流场等温线、流场等压线、流场等马赫数线、壁面温度与径向平均温度曲线和燃烧效率曲线。计算结果表明：用数值模拟方法分析ＬＲＥ内部工作过程是可行的。     

战斗机对地攻击作战效能分析

运用马尔柯夫过程理论,建立了战斗机攻击地面目标的战场想定和数学模型.通过分析战斗机的作战生存特征、打击能力和所使用的进攻战术以及各种战场防空武器系统的物理特性和损伤机理,评估了任务成功率、目标被毁率、飞机损失率以及与费用相关的最优战斗时间等作战效能指标.给出了战斗机对地攻击作战效能的计算实例.结果表明所建模型客观地描述了对地攻击作战的实质.     

The role of motor processes in mental rotation: selective shaping of cognitive processing via specific sensorimotor experience

The involvement of motor processes in mental rotation is experience-dependent: different levels of expertise in sensorimotor interactions lead to different strategies in mental rotation. In the present study, wrestlers, gymnasts, and nonathletes physically rotated objects that were either light (wooden) or heavy (lead) but otherwise having the same sizes and shapes. They then performed a mental rotation task using photographs of these objects in which the material and therefore the weight was visible. I hypothesized that wrestlers would rely more heavily on experience-based sensorimotor strategies in performing mental rotation because during their athletic practice they not only manipulate external “objects” (i.e., their opponent) but also have to plan future actions taking into account past experience of these “objects” (for example their weight). All participants reported that lead objects were harder to physically rotate than wooden ones. However, only wrestlers mentally rotated lead objects more slowly than wooden ones—as they would if they were physically rotating them—suggesting the involvement of motor processes. These findings show that the involvement of motor processes in mental rotation depends on specific rather than mere sensorimotor experience.     

Self-similar stochastic processes in solar wind turbulence

Solar wind data is used to estimate the autocorrelation function for the stochastic process x(τ) = y(t + τ) − y(t), considered as a function of τ, where y(t) is any one of the quantities B²(t), n_p(t)V²(t), or n_p(t). This process has stationary increments and a variance that increases like a power law τ^2γ where γ is the scaling exponent. For the kinetic energy density and the proton density the scaling exponent is close to the Kolmogorov value γ = 1/3, for the magnetic energy density it is slightly larger. In all three cases, it is shown that the autocorrelation function estimated from the data agrees with the theoretical autocorrelation function for a self-similar stochastic process with stationary increments and finite variance. This is far from proof, but it suggests that these stochastic processes may be self-similar for time scales in the small scale inertial range of the turbulence, that is, from approximately 10 to 10³ s.     

The role of radial perpendicular diffusion and latitude dependent acceleration along the solar wind termination shock

A numerical model, based on Parker’s transport equation, describing the modulation of anomalous cosmic rays and containing diffusive shock acceleration is applied. The role of radial perpendicular diffusion at the solar wind termination shock, and as the dominant diffusion coefficient in the outer heliosphere, is studied, in particular the role it plays in the effectiveness of the acceleration of anomalous protons and helium when its latitude dependence is changed. It is found that the latitudinal enhancement of radial perpendicular diffusion towards the heliospheric poles and along the termination shock has a prominent effect on the acceleration of these particles. It results in a ‘break’ in the energy spectrum for anomalous protons at ∼6.0 MeV, causing the spectral index to change from E^−1.38 to E^−2.23, but for anomalous helium at ∼3.0 MeV, changing the spectral index from E^−1.38 to E^−2.30. When approaching the simulated TS, the changes in the modulated spectra as they unfold to a ‘steady’ power law shape at energies below 50 MeV are much less prominent as a function of radial distances when radial perpendicular diffusion is increased with heliolatitude.     

网格计算在工业过程控制中的应用前景

网格计算是一种新兴的解决大规模复杂问题的应用技术,充分利用现有资源提供高性能的计算能力。现在的生产过程越来越向大规模复杂化方向发展,过程控制需要新的控制模型和控制方法来解决这些问题。但现有的计算能力无疑又限制了控制技术的应用,将高性能的网格计算运用到过程控制当中可以提高控制模型和控制算法的计算速度,也将大大提高其控制品质和应用范围。     

一种双时间尺度函数Wiener过程性能退化模型

为通过性能退化数据评估产品的可靠性,基于广义Wiener过程提出了一种双时间尺度函数模型以描述产品退化过程。采用极大似然估计(MLE)法求解模型参数,推导了其寿命分布(FTD),进而进行可靠度分析和寿命评估。对模型进行了Monte Carlo模拟验证和实例应用,并将目前常用的混合效应Wiener过程模型作为参考方法进行了对比分析。结果表明:根据90%可靠度曲线的定义,该方法较参考方法的结果更为合理、准确。进一步的寿命评估结果表明,该方法与参考方法的平均寿命相差232.9h,90%可靠寿命结果相差109.4h,且参考方法计算结果偏于危险。